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(ט) ויכירו כל בני עולם שהיה כל זה בחטאת ישראל על עזבם את ה' אלקיהם.
All the inhabitants of the world will understand that this [destruction] is because of the sin of Israel, when they deserted the Lord their God.
It makes much more sense for a polytheist to believe that, when Israel suffers misfortune, it is because Israel’s God is not sufficiently powerful or has rejected them, rather than believing that Israel had sinned, citing such details as the covenant God made with Israel at the exodus (Deut. 29.24). Polytheists did understand the concept of a god being angry with his people, but connecting that anger to infractions of religious law is not common.
When God Punishes Israel: What Will the Gentiles Say? Prof. Rabbi Marty Lockshin thetorah.com
Moshe Weinfeld lists the following passages as advancing the same argument: Num 14:15-16, Josh 7:7-9, Jer 14:7, Ps 25:11, 79:9-10, 109:21, and 115:1-2, and many passages in Ezekiel. Moshe Weinfeld, Deuteronomy 1-11 (Anchor Bible; New York: Doubleday, 1991), p. 416.
(ז) וַיֹּ֨אמֶר יְהוֹשֻׁ֜עַ אֲהָ֣הּ ׀ אדושם ה' לָ֠מָה הֵעֲבַ֨רְתָּ הַעֲבִ֜יר אֶת־הָעָ֤ם הַזֶּה֙ אֶת־הַיַּרְדֵּ֔ן לָתֵ֥ת אֹתָ֛נוּ בְּיַ֥ד הָאֱמֹרִ֖י לְהַאֲבִידֵ֑נוּ וְלוּ֙ הוֹאַ֣לְנוּ וַנֵּ֔שֶׁב בְּעֵ֖בֶר הַיַּרְדֵּֽן׃ (ח) בִּ֖י אדושם מָ֣ה אֹמַ֔ר אַ֠חֲרֵ֠י אֲשֶׁ֨ר הָפַ֧ךְ יִשְׂרָאֵ֛ל עֹ֖רֶף לִפְנֵ֥י אֹיְבָֽיו׃ (ט) וְיִשְׁמְע֣וּ הַֽכְּנַעֲנִ֗י וְכֹל֙ יֹשְׁבֵ֣י הָאָ֔רֶץ וְנָסַ֣בּוּ עָלֵ֔ינוּ וְהִכְרִ֥יתוּ אֶת־שְׁמֵ֖נוּ מִן־הָאָ֑רֶץ וּמַֽה־תַּעֲשֵׂ֖ה לְשִׁמְךָ֥ הַגָּדֽוֹל׃
(7) “Ah, my Sovereign GOD !” cried Joshua. “Why did You lead this people across the Jordan only to deliver us into the hands of the Amorites, to be destroyed by them? If only we had been content to remain on the other side of the Jordan! (8) O my Sovereign, what can I say after Israel has turned tail before its enemies? (9) When the Canaanites and all the inhabitants of the land hear of this, they will turn upon us and wipe out our very name from the earth. And what will You do about Your great name?”
Act, O ETERNAL One, for the sake of Your name;
Though our rebellions are many
And we have sinned against You.
pardon my iniquity though it be great.
for the sake of the glory of Your name.
Save us and forgive our sin,
for the sake of Your name. (10) Let the nations not say, “Where is their God?”
Before our eyes let it be known among the nations
that You avenge the spilled blood of Your servants.
act on my behalf as befits Your name.
Good and faithful as You are, save me.
but to Your name bring glory
for the sake of Your love and Your faithfulness. (2) Let the nations not say,
“Where, now, is their God?”
חֽוּסָה ה' עָלֵֽינוּ בְּרַחֲמֶֽיךָ, וְאַל תִּתְּ֒נֵֽנוּ בִּידֵי אַכְזָרִים: לָֽמָּה יֹאמְ֒רוּ הַגּוֹיִם אַיֵּה־נָא אֱלֺהֵיהֶם לְמַעַנְךָ עֲשֵׂה עִמָּֽנוּ חֶֽסֶד וְאַל תְּאַחַר: אָנָּא שׁוּב מֵחֲרוֹנְ֒ךָ וְרַחֵם סְגֻלָּה אֲשֶׁר בָּחָֽרְתָּ:
Adonoy, in Your mercy, spare us, do not discard us in the hands of cruel foes. Why should the nations say: Where now is their God? For Your sake, deal kindly with us and do not delay. We beseech You, turn from Your anger, and have compassion on the treasured people whom You have chosen.
חכמה גדולה יש כאן! שמא תאמרו והלא חטא גדול במעשה העגל הועילה תפלתו של משה וניצלנו, אף בארץ ישראל אם נחטא יועילו לנו תפלות הנביאים? אמר להם משה: לא תועיל לכם תפלות בארץ ישראל, כי עתה נתכפר לכם כדי שלא יתחלל שמו, שהרי כך התפללתי: זכור לעבדיך וגו' פן יאמרו הארץ אשר הוצאתנו משם מבלתי יכולת ה' להביאם - ולכך לא נתחייבתם בעדו מיתה, אבל לאחר שיהרוג שלושים ואחד מלכים וינחילכם את הארץ, אז יוציאכם ויגרש אתכם מן הארץ שאין כאן חילול השם לאמר לאומות מבלתי יכולת ה', אלא יאמרו הגוים, ישראל חטאו לו. כמו שמפורש באתם נצבים: ואמרו כל הגוים על מה עשה ה' ככה לארץ הזאת ומה חרי האף וגו', ואמרו על אשר עזבו את ברית ה' אלקי אבותם וגו' ויתשם ה' מעל אדמתם באף ובחמה ובקצף גדול וישליכם אל ארץ אחרת כיום הזה.
However, there is a profound wisdom in the sequence of the words the Torah quotes Moses as saying, one that contains an admonition to his people. ... by pre-empting an argument by the Jewish people that just as his prayers had been helpful when they were in the desert, similar prayers would be equally helpful once the people were in the Holy Land and they committed a major sin. The prophets in such days, they would argue, would surely be able to act as their interlocutors then just as Moses had done while he was alive.
The point Moses is making here is that at this time their atonement was only in order for G’d not to be perceived as being unable to fulfill His oath of bringing Avraham’s descendants to take over the land of Canaan. In other words, Israel’s pardon was for the sake of not desecrating G’d’s Holy name.
Once G’d had demonstrated that He had kept His promise, and that the people concerned had been settled in the Holy Land, as promised, His Holy name would never again be in danger of being desecrated by someone citing the arguments Moses had been able to cite while the people were still in the desert.
This is why Moses repeats again the wording of his prayer. He is telling the people that if his prayer had been heard, it was only on account of an irrefutable argument he had been able to advance, namely how the Egyptians and other nations would react to the Jewish people’s annihilation.
It follows, that if, G’d forbid the Jewish people, once settled in the Holy Land, would become guilty of similar misdemeanours as had the Canaanites, they would face both death and expulsion. On the contrary, if that were to happen, the gentile nations would not point to G’d’s inability to keep them there as the cause of their misfortune, but they would correctly point to the disloyalty this people had demonstrated by eschewing the laws given to them by their G’d, the One who had driven out the Canaanites. We find this all spelled out in Deuteronomy 29,23-27.